Bundesliga Bayern 1st 18 points, goal difference +19 | Bundesliga Mainz 9th 10 points, goal difference 0 | Mainz at home Points 1 From four league games | Mainz, last 7 league games Scored in 7 17 goals in eight games |
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| 01 The Big Take |
| Madrid was the statement. Mainz is the test of whether it sticks. |
| Bayern won 2–0 at Atlético on Tuesday with four attackers out and kept their first clean sheet since September. Now they go to a side that can't win at home: one point from four games at the Mewa Arena, and three home defeats in a row in which Mainz conceded ten goals. |
| But Mainz score. They have found the net in every league game since the opening-day 0–0 with Paderborn, including 5–0 at Hamburg and 4–3 at Gladbach. Under Urs Fischer they're ninth, and lost their last two league games: 2–3 at home to Bremen and 1–4 at Elversberg. |
| Danks takes charge again. He said he has had "a few really good phone calls" with Kompany, who is making progress, but there is no date for his return (our translation, via Sky). Our best wishes go to him again. |
| Mainz's games average more than four goals. Bayern have just shown they can keep one out. |
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| Results and table via GoalIQ. Mainz's goals: 17 scored, 17 conceded in eight league games, 34 in total. |
| 02 The Tactical Take |
| Four things that decide it |
| 1 · Mainz's back five |
| Sports Mole and The Hard Tackle both expect Fischer's 3-5-2: Zentner; Da Costa, Gruber, Potulski; Caci, Lee, Sano, Amiri, Widmer; Tietz, Becker. Five across the back without the ball, and two strikers to run at Bayern's centre-backs. |
| 2 · Rotation |
| Danks said Bayern will try players in different roles, particularly at full-back and in midfield. Davies "needs a rest for his explosive nature" and may play limited minutes. Pavlović trained fully; "we need to see how his legs react". |
| 3 · Mainz's missing defenders |
| The Hard Tackle lists Posch and Mwene as suspended, and Kohr, Katompa Mvumpa, Weiper and Ruoppi as injured. Mainz will be without two suspended defenders, which helps a Bayern attack that's still short of forwards. |
| 4 · Penalties |
| The Hard Tackle counts four penalties given away by Mainz this season, the most in the league. Kane hit the bar from the spot against Dortmund; he'll want another one. |
| Danks's quotes via Yahoo Sports and Sky Sport. Predicted line-ups from Sports Mole and The Hard Tackle. |
| 03 The Numbers |
1 Mainz's home points this season. Joint-lowest in the Bundesliga, with Gladbach. |
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10 Goals Mainz conceded in their last three home games. Frankfurt 3, Leverkusen 4, Bremen 3. |
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30 Bundesliga away games without defeat for Bayern. Per AFP, closing in on the club record. |
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4–3 Bayern's win on their last visit to Mainz. AFP reports Mainz led 3–0 before Bayern came back. |
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| 04 The One Thing You Missed |
Beyond the headlines Bayern's away record is better than it feels What we saw Draws at Schalke, Augsburg and Viking made Bayern's away form feel shaky. But they haven't lost away from home this season, and AFP counts 30 Bundesliga away games without defeat. What we think it means Bayern don't lose on the road; they drop points. Against a side that concedes plenty at home, the question is whether they can keep a second clean sheet in a row, not whether they'll score. |
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| 05 The Counterargument |
| Maybe this is a trap |
| — It's the last game before the break. This is Bayern's sixth game since 21 October. Legs will be heavy, and Danks has said he'll rotate. |
| — Mainz always make it hard. AFP says Mainz have won four of the last six Bundesliga meetings in Mainz. Danks: "It's a hard place to play. They're very competitive." |
| — Mainz score against everyone. Seven league games in a row with a goal. Bayern's clean sheet in Madrid was their first since September. |
| 06 What to Watch |
| Four things to look for on Saturday |
1 | The team sheet. Whether Davies and Pavlović start, and who plays full-back. |
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2 | Karl again. He scored in Madrid. Can he keep his place with Olise and Kane around him? |
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3 | The first 20 minutes. Danks: "We need to be at the highest level from the first minute." |
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4 | Dortmund's result. Level on points. Bayern lead only on goal difference. |
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| Out for Bayern: Musiala (back in training, but Danks says the game is too soon), Díaz, Gnabry, Saibari and Ndiaye. Neuer trained and "things look good". |
The B90 Question Should Davies rest at Mainz, or does Bayern's thin attack need him? Tell us on X @Beyond90Bayern. We'll pick up the best answers in the post-match issue. |
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Next: Bayern v Köln
Bundesliga · Matchday 10 (after the international break)
Fri 20 Nov · 19:30 UK |
| Sources: Yahoo Sports: Danks squad update · Sky Sport: Kompany, Musiala, Díaz · Yahoo Sports (AFP): preview · Sports Mole: preview · The Hard Tackle: preview · GoalIQ: results and table · Results and table: GoalIQ |
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