Kick-off
WWK Arena
14:30
UK time · 15:30 CEST
Table
4th v 2nd
7 v 10
Points after four games
Augsburg form
W W D L
11–6
Schalke 3–0, Frankfurt 4–1 (A), Leverkusen 2–2, Bremen 2–3 (A)
The prize
Top spot
13 pts
Dortmund drew 2–2 with Bremen on Friday
01  The Big Take
For a month the question has been how Bayern break a wall. Augsburg aren't going to build one. That changes the test.
Augsburg have scored 11 goals in four games. Only Bayern (14) and Freiburg (12) have scored more. They beat Schalke 3–0 on the opening day, the same Schalke that held Bayern to a 0–0 a week later. They won 4–1 in Frankfurt. And in January, they became the only team in Bayern's last 47 Bundesliga games to beat them.
Kompany knows it: “What sets FCA apart is that they're very compact and can be very dangerous on the ball.” Augsburg coach Manuel Baum has told his players that “right from kick-off, everyone in the stadium and everyone in the team has to believe that we can win.”
Against Schalke and Union, Bayern's problem was what to do with the ball. Today it's likely to be what happens when they lose it.
Bayern have spent a month learning to break a wall. Augsburg will bring a counter-attack instead.
We couldn't find published possession or xG figures for Augsburg's season, so "they'll attack" is a reading of results, line-ups and both coaches' words, not a data finding.
02  The Tactical Take
Three battles that decide it
1 · Bayern's wingers against Augsburg's wing-backs
Augsburg are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1. Marius Wolf and Hennes Behrens play as wing-backs, the only width Augsburg have. When Bayern have the ball, those two either push on or drop into a back five.
That is where Olise and Díaz come in. If they pin the wing-backs back, Augsburg defend with five and have nobody wide to break with. If the wing-backs push on instead, the space behind them is exactly where Olise likes to receive. Either way, the flanks are where this game is won or lost. It's the same idea as Issue 01, from the opposite direction.
2 · Who replaces Musiala
Musiala is out with a torn muscle fibre in his right thigh, picked up on international duty. Most previews expect Ismael Saibari in the No. 10 role. He has three goal contributions in four league games. Bild reports Serge Gnabry is the more likely starter.
In Issue 01 we suggested Musiala winning duels in the middle was one reason Union stayed narrow and the flanks opened. Today is the first chance to see what happens without him.
3 · Rest defence: what happens when Bayern lose it
Augsburg's main threat is Michael Gregoritsch, with three goals in four games, supported by Robin Fellhauer and Alexis Claude-Maurice. When Bayern's full-backs push on, Kimmich and Pavlović are left protecting the space behind. That's the space Augsburg will aim for.
SCHEMATIC  The idea: the wing-back duel, and the counter behind it
Sourced: Augsburg's probable 3-4-2-1 with Wolf and Behrens as wing-backs (The Hard Tackle, The False 9). Bayern's probable 4-2-3-1 with Kimmich and Pavlović in midfield and Olise and Díaz wide (same sources). Kompany calling Augsburg "very compact" and "very dangerous on the ball" (FC Bayern).
Illustrated: every position and arrow. This shows the idea, not a prediction of where players will stand. We don't know which wing-back each Bayern winger will face, so they aren't named.
03  The Numbers
Two attacks, very different defences
■ Augsburg    ■ Bayern
SCORED
11
 
14
CONCEDED
6
 
2
1 in 47
Bayern have lost one of their last 47 Bundesliga games. It was to Augsburg, 2–1, in January.
Source: FC Bayern's match preview.
28
Away league games unbeaten for Bayern: 21 wins, 7 draws.
The club record is 33, set from 2012 to 2014.
1 in 14
Augsburg have lost one of their last 14 home league games: seven wins, six draws.
The WWK Arena is not an easy away day.
11 of 15
Bundesliga games at Augsburg won by Bayern.
History favours Bayern. Recent form is closer.
04  The One Thing You Missed
Beyond the highlights
How Augsburg beat Bayern in January
What we saw
Bayern led 1–0 at half-time in January through Hiroki Ito's header from an Olise corner. After the break, Augsburg took over. Arthur Chaves headed the equaliser on 75 minutes. On 81, wing-back Dimitrios Giannoulis raced to the byline and cut the ball back for Han-Noah Massengo to score the winner.
What we think it means
Both goals came in the air or from the byline, the same areas Bayern want to attack themselves. Augsburg didn't beat Bayern by sitting back. They beat them by getting a wing-back to the byline behind Bayern's defence. Massengo, who scored the winner, is expected to start again today, and Augsburg still play with two attacking wing-backs.
05  The Counterargument
Maybe an open game suits Bayern perfectly
—  Augsburg leak goals. They have conceded six in four games and threw away a two-goal lead in a 3–2 defeat at Bremen. A team that comes forward leaves space, and space is what Olise, Díaz and Kane were missing at Schalke.
—  January was a weakened Bayern. That side started Urbig in goal, with Ito and Kim at the back and Goretzka in midfield. Kimmich and Musiala came off the bench. Today's probable XI is close to full strength.
—  Four games is not a style. Two of Augsburg's big wins came against Schalke and a Frankfurt side that is now 10th. Calling them an attacking team may be reading too much into a good start.
06  What to Watch
Four things to look for this afternoon
1
The first 15 minutes. Do Augsburg press high, or drop into a five? It tells you which game this is going to be.
2
Who plays No. 10. Saibari or Gnabry. With Musiala out, watch whether Augsburg's centre stays packed or opens up.
3
Olise against a wing-back. His first away Bundesliga goal of the season would come from winning his duel out wide.
4
Bayern's full-backs. When Laimer and Davies push up, who covers behind them? That's where January was lost.
On rotation, Kompany says workload only needs managing “when the lads are tired”, and that's “not the case yet”. Expect a strong XI despite Viking away on Tuesday.
The B90 Question
Bayern have learned to break a wall. Are they ready for a team that runs at them when they lose the ball?
We'll answer it in the post-match issue. Tell us what you think on X @Beyond90Bayern.
Next: Viking v Bayern
Champions League · League stage, matchday 2 · Tue 13 Oct · 20:00 UK
Sources: FC Bayern: match preview · FC Bayern: January match report · Yahoo: preview · The Hard Tackle: preview · The False 9: predicted line-ups · FCBinside: roster update · Bulinews: Kompany on rotation · Table, results and fixtures: GoalIQ
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