38' · Bayern Laimer 1–0 One-two with Olise, scored the rebound | 60' · Dortmund Guirassy 1–1 Chukwuemeka's pass after Dortmund won the ball | 66' · Bayern Upamecano 2–1 Kimmich's corner, Kane's header across | 89' · Dortmund Fábio Silva 2–2 A rebound, off the bench |
|
| 01 The Big Take |
| On the chances, this was a Bayern win. On the scoreboard, it was the fifth late goal in six games. |
| Bundesliga.com's expected-goals model had it 4.83 to 0.70. Olise hit the post on ten minutes. Kane hit the bar from the penalty spot on 56, then the post on 75. Karl hit the bar in stoppage time. Bayern led twice. |
| Then, with a minute left, Pavlović went down under a challenge from Karetsas, his clearance was blocked, and substitute Fábio Silva scored from the rebound. Bundesliga.com put the chance of that goal at 5%. |
| Kimmich started on his return, next to Pavlović, and both played the full game. Kane was honoured before kick-off for his Ballon d'Or. He had six shots without hitting the target, but set up Upamecano's goal. |
| 4.83 expected goals to 0.70. One point each. |
|
| No post-match quotes from Danks or the players had been published when we wrote this. Expected-goals figures are from Bundesliga.com's match facts. |
| 02 The Tactical Take |
| How Bayern opened up the best defence, and still drew |
| 1 · Dortmund's back five didn't hold |
| Previews expected a game of few chances. Instead Bayern broke through repeatedly. Laimer's goal came from winning the ball high and a one-two with Olise. Saibari had a one-on-one on 24 minutes. The issue wasn't creating; it was finishing. |
| 2 · Set pieces, as we said |
| Both of Bayern's best moments came from a dead ball. Upamecano's goal came from Kimmich's corner, with Kane heading it across. The penalty came after Nmecha blocked Kane's volley from a corner with his arm. |
| 3 · Kane's strange night |
| A penalty off the bar, a shot off the post, a goal ruled out for offside, and no shots on target from six attempts. But he also set up Upamecano's goal. His Bundesliga penalty record is now 25 from 27. |
| 4 · The 89th minute |
| Bayern have conceded in six games in a row, and five of those goals have come after the 80th minute. This one came from a 5% chance, after a challenge that looked soft. But it keeps happening. |
| Bellingham had a goal ruled out by VAR on 35 minutes for impeding Urbig. Sources differ slightly on the reason given. |
| 03 The Numbers |
4.83 Bayern's expected goals. Dortmund's: 0.70. |
|
4 Times Bayern hit the woodwork. Olise, Kane's penalty, Kane again, and Karl in stoppage time. |
|
5% The chance Bundesliga.com gave Fábio Silva's equaliser. The lowest-probability goal of the game. |
|
18 Points each. Bayern top on goal difference, both still unbeaten. |
|
| 04 Our Preview, Marked |
Holding ourselves to account What we got right, and what we got wrong Right "Patience, and set pieces, may matter more." Bayern's second goal and the penalty both came from corners. "The last 15 minutes." Another goal conceded on 89. Kimmich started, and played 90 minutes next to Pavlović. Wrong We expected Dortmund's back five to keep Bayern quiet. Bayern created 4.83 expected goals. The tight part was the finishing, not the chances. Not tested Our last question, Saibari or Karl. Saibari started, then went off injured before the half-hour. Karl came on for Olise late and hit the bar. |
|
| 05 The Counterargument |
| Maybe a draw is fair |
| — Dortmund scored twice and had a third ruled out. Bellingham's goal was disallowed by VAR. With it, this is a different story. |
| — Bayern ended the game with a patched-up side. Saibari and Gnabry were off injured inside 31 minutes, and Olise limped off late. Dortmund made five changes from the bench to Bayern's three. |
| — Expected goals don't win games. Bayern's finishing, including Kane's penalty, cost them more than Dortmund's quality earned. |
| 06 What It Means |
| Three things to carry into Atlético |
1 | The injuries. Saibari, Gnabry and Olise all came off hurt, three days before Atlético Madrid away. On top of Díaz, Musiala and Neuer. |
|
2 | The late goals. Five in six games. In Madrid, that habit will be punished. |
|
3 | Still top. Level on 18 points with Dortmund, ahead by 11 on goal difference. |
|
| Our best wishes to Vincent Kompany as his recovery continues at home. |
The B90 Question Kane's penalty, the woodwork, or the 89th minute: what cost Bayern the win? Tell us on X @Beyond90Bayern. We'll pick up the best answers in the Atlético preview. |
|
Next: Atlético Madrid v Bayern
Champions League · League phase, matchday 4
Tue 3 Nov · 20:00 UK |
| Sources: FC Bayern: match report, line-ups · Bundesliga.com: match report, xG · Sky Sports: report · beIN Sports: Kane penalty, injuries · Results and table: GoalIQ |
BEYOND 90 Bayern Munich, beyond the scoreline. Tactical insight. Honest analysis. Opinions you won't get from the usual coverage. An independent publication. Not affiliated with or endorsed by FC Bayern München. |
