Champions League Bayern 14th 5 points from 3 games | Champions League Atlético 16th 4 points from 3 games | La Liga Atlético 2nd 28 points, two behind Barcelona | Atlético, last 9 Goals conceded 3 Eight wins, one draw |
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| 01 The Big Take |
| Three games, five points, and two leads thrown away late. Madrid is where Bayern's Champions League campaign gets serious. |
| Bayern started with a 5–0 against Bodø/Glimt. Since then: 3–3 at Viking after leading 3–2 into the 90th minute, then 2–2 with Arsenal after leading 2–1 until the 82nd. That's four points dropped from winning positions, and Bayern sit 14th, outside the top eight that go straight to the last 16. |
| Atlético are 16th on four points, but that hides their form. They lost 2–1 at Liverpool on matchday 1 and haven't lost since: nine games, eight wins, one draw, three goals conceded. They're second in La Liga, two points behind Barcelona, and unbeaten at home all season. |
| Bayern are still without Kompany, who is recovering at home after leaving hospital last week. We send him our best wishes again. Danks is in charge again. |
| Bayern have dropped four points from winning positions in this competition. Atlético give you very few winning positions to start with. |
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| Champions League table via GoalIQ after matchday 3. Atlético's results from GoalIQ fixtures data; their unbeaten run is our count of all competitions since 13 September. |
| 02 The Tactical Take |
| Four things that decide it |
| 1 · Atlético's 4-4-2 block |
| Both The Hard Tackle and Sports Mole expect Simeone's 4-4-2: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Hancko, Grimaldo; Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Hjulmand, Baena; Álvarez, Lee. Two compact banks of four, built to stop Kimmich and Pavlović from dictating. |
| 2 · Who plays with Kane? |
| With Saibari, Gnabry, Díaz and Musiala out, the attack picks itself if Olise can't start: Karl, Davies and the previews' choice, Brown, behind Kane. Kane said he doesn't yet know who will play alongside him, and praised academy player Tim Binder, who travelled. |
| 3 · Olise: start or bench? |
| Danks: "Both will be available" (on Olise and Neuer, our translation). He trained with a bandage on his right knee, and Eberl said Bayern are "taking it day by day". Starting him risks the knee; leaving him out removes Bayern's best creator. |
| 4 · The last ten minutes, again |
| Bayern have conceded in six straight games, several of them late. Atlético under Simeone are built to stay in the game and strike once. A one-goal lead at 80 minutes won't feel safe. |
| Predicted line-ups from The Hard Tackle and Sports Mole. Danks's quote via Sport1, Eberl's via ESPN, Kane's comments via t-online's press-conference live blog. Cardoso and Koke are back in training for Atlético but may not start. |
| 03 The Numbers |
3 Goals Atlético have conceded in their last nine games. Six clean sheets in that run. |
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5W 1D Atlético's home record this season. 13 scored, three conceded. |
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4–0 Bayern's win in the 1974 European Cup final replay. Hoeneß and Gerd Müller scored twice each, after a 1–1 in the first match. |
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1 Goals Bayern have scored on their last three visits to Atlético. Lost 1–0 in 2016 (twice), drew 1–1 in 2020. |
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| 04 The One Thing You Missed |
Beyond the headlines Kane has lost in this stadium before What we saw Kane has played at Atlético's stadium before: the 2019 Champions League final, which Tottenham lost 2–0 to Liverpool. On Monday he called Atlético strong defensively and physically, especially at home, and said Bayern must defend and press well. What we think it means Bayern's attack is now Kane plus whoever is fit. Against the deepest block he'll face this season, expect him to drop even further to collect the ball. The question is who runs into the space he leaves. |
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| 05 The Counterargument |
| Maybe Bayern are fine |
| — They're still scoring. The Hard Tackle counts 38 Bayern goals in their last ten games. Atlético haven't faced an attack like that during their run. |
| — Atlético have dropped points at this level. They lost at Liverpool and drew at Stuttgart. Their only home draw was 2–2 with Villarreal. |
| — Bayern's record against them is good. Four wins in eight meetings, two defeats, and the 4–0 in 2020 was the last time they met in Munich. |
| 06 What to Watch |
| Four things to look for tonight |
1 | The team sheet. Olise, Neuer and Urbig: who starts, and who's on the bench. |
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2 | Kimmich and Pavlović against the four-man midfield. If Bayern can't get the ball through Atlético's middle, they'll be pushed wide. |
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3 | Álvarez against the high line. Atlético's main threat on the break. Upamecano and Tah need to stay switched on. |
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4 | The last ten minutes. Two Champions League leads already gone late this season. |
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| Out for Bayern: Díaz, Musiala, Ndiaye, Gnabry (thigh) and Saibari (ankle surgery). Neuer has missed four games with a foot problem but is available. Reports differ on Bayern's goalkeeper: Sports Mole suggests Ulreich, but Sport1 confirms Neuer is fit. |
The B90 Question Should Olise start in Madrid, or be saved for the second half? Tell us on X @Beyond90Bayern. We'll pick up the best answers in the post-match issue. |
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Next: Mainz v Bayern
Bundesliga · Matchday 9
Sat 7 Nov · 14:30 UK |
| Sources: Sport1: Neuer and Olise available · ESPN: Olise travels · Berliner Zeitung: injuries · t-online: press conference live · The Hard Tackle: preview · Sports Mole: preview · UEFA: previous meetings · GoalIQ: tables and results · Results and table: GoalIQ |
BEYOND 90 Bayern Munich, beyond the scoreline. Tactical insight. Honest analysis. Opinions you won't get from the usual coverage. An independent publication. Not affiliated with or endorsed by FC Bayern München. |
