Sourced: right winger (Bundesliga.com, FotMob). Right flank v Bodø (Yahoo) and No. 10 role in the same game (Bundesliga.com). Two swerving strikes from the edge of the box, a first-time finish from the corner of the area and a cross for Kane's header v Union (Bundesliga.com). 11 crosses and six key passes v Osnabrück (Sofascore).
Illustrated: every position, zone and arrow. This shows the three ideas, not mapped locations. We don't have his shot or heat maps. |
| Why it matters |
| A winger who only crosses can be defended by doubling up on the flank. One who only cuts inside can be defended by showing him outside. Olise does both, and he can also come inside to make the pass. The defender can't commit to one option without leaving another open. |
| The weakness is the other side of the ball. FotMob puts his defensive contribution in only the 26th percentile for his position. In a team that presses high, that's a cost Kompany has decided to accept. |
| 03 The Numbers |
| Competition | Games | Goals | Assists | | Bundesliga | 4 | 4 | 1 | | Champions League | 1 | 2 | 1 | | DFB-Pokal | 1 | 1 | 0 | | Supercup | 1 | 1 | 1 | | All competitions | 7 | 8 | 3 |
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| Bundesliga.com counts three assists. Goal.com and some others count four, probably including the penalty he won against Union. We use the stricter figure. |
18 Shots in four Bundesliga games, the most in the league. He also leads the league with 18 dribbles attempted. |
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+1.7 Goals scored above expected goals in the Bundesliga. He has also hit the woodwork twice. He is finishing hot, and that won't last. See 06. |
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106 Touches against Union, with six shots and five successful dribbles. For a winger, that's a playmaker's share of the ball. |
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50 + 58 Goals and assists for Bayern in 114 games since joining from Crystal Palace in 2024. He has won five trophies in that time. |
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| Goal involvements, game by game |
2 BVB (A) | 1 STU (H) | 1 OSN (A) | 0 S04 (A) | 3 BOD (H) | 0 SVE (A) | 4 FCU (H) |
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| Goals plus assists. Red bars are home games, grey bars away. |
| 04 The One Thing You Missed |
Beyond the highlights Olise hasn't scored in an away Bundesliga game yet 6G 2A In three home games Stuttgart, Bodø/Glimt, Union | 2G 1A In four away games Both goals in cup games: Dortmund, Osnabrück |
What we saw In two away league games, Schalke and Elversberg, he has no goals and no assists. At Schalke he started on the bench and played the last half-hour. At Elversberg he started and couldn't find a way through. What we think it means Probably less than it looks. Two games is a tiny sample, and both opponents defended deep for long spells. He did score away in the Supercup and the Pokal. But the next run is Augsburg away, Viking away, then Leipzig and Arsenal at home. If he scores at Augsburg, this footnote disappears. If he doesn't, the deep-block question from Issue 01 starts to look like an Olise question too. |
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| 05 The Contract |
| What we know, and what's only reported |
| Item | Detail | Status | | Current deal | Runs to 30 June 2029. Rummenigge: “Olise is under contract until 2029.” | Confirmed | | Release clause | None in the current deal, according to Max Eberl. Bayern used his reported €53m Crystal Palace clause to sign him in 2024. | Confirmed | | New length | To 2032 | Reported | | Wages | From around €14m to €25m a year, starting summer 2027 (AS) | Reported | | The clause | His camp want one. Sport Bild puts a workable figure above €200m. Bild's version, as relayed by Sports Mole, is about £170m. | Reported | | Interest | Real Madrid, with Liverpool also said to be watching | Reported | | Timing | Kane's extension comes first. Bayern reportedly want an answer from Olise by next summer. | Reported |
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| Rummenigge's full comment to Abendzeitung was measured: “At some point, the club will have to sit down with him and present a suitable offer. He is exceptional in his position.” That is a club that knows it has time, not one that is panicking. |
| Our read. With no clause and nearly three years left, Bayern have the leverage now. That leverage shrinks every summer the contract runs down. If a clause is the price of a deal, the questions that matter are its size and when it can be used, not whether it exists. A clause well above €200m that only kicks in from 2028 protects Bayern. One that can be triggered next summer is just an invitation. |
| The size and timing of a clause are our analysis, not something any outlet has reported. Clause figures in euros and pounds vary across outlets. We quote each at its source. |
| 06 The Counterargument |
| Maybe this is a hot streak, not a new Olise |
| — The finishing will cool. He is 1.7 goals above expected goals in the league, and three of those goals came in one game against a Union side that has now conceded 17 in four. Issue 01 put his hat-trick at 1.11 xG. Take away one afternoon and the "new goalscorer" story looks much thinner. |
| — The opponents were soft. Stuttgart, Schalke, Elversberg, Union, Osnabrück and Bodø/Glimt are not the teams that decide Bayern's season. Arsenal at home on 21 October is the first real test of whether the shooting holds up. |
| — The defensive cost is real. A 26th-percentile defensive contribution is fine against teams that sit deep. Against teams that run at Bayern, it leaves the right side exposed. |
| — A clause might be fine. Players usually leave when they want to, clause or not. If €200m is the price, Bayern would be selling at close to a world-record fee. Holding firm on "no clause" could cost them the extension and leave them with a declining asset. Our worry may be the wrong one. |
| 07 What It Means |
| Four games that will tell us more than seven |
1 | Augsburg away, 10 Oct. First chance to score in an away league game. If Augsburg sit deep, does he go round them or try to shoot through them? |
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2 | Viking away, 13 Oct. Rotation is likely three days later. Does Kompany rest him, and how does Bayern's right side look without him? |
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3 | Leipzig and Arsenal at home, 17 and 21 Oct. The first opponents who will attack Bayern back. Watch his shot volume, and watch who covers behind him. |
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4 | The contract. Reports say Bayern want it settled before the end of the year, but Kane comes first. Any leak about the clause's size or timing matters more than the wage figure. |
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The B90 Question Would you give Olise a release clause to keep him until 2032? And if so, what's the lowest number you'd accept? Reply to this email or tell us on X @Beyond90Bayern. We'll share the best answers in Issue 02. |
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Next: Issue 02 · Augsburg v Bayern
WWK Arena · Sat 10 Oct · 15:30 CEST · 14:30 UK |
| Sources: Bundesliga.com: Olise hitting new heights · Bundesliga.com: Kane and Olise lead the way · Bundesliga.com: what Olise brought · FotMob: Olise profile · FotMob: Bayern 7–0 Union · Yahoo: Bayern 5–0 Bodø/Glimt · NewsBytes: Bodø/Glimt · Sofascore: Osnabrück 1–4 Bayern · Sky Sports: Supercup · Goal: Rummenigge on Olise · Goal: contract terms · Sports Mole: release clause · FCBinside: Sport Bild report · Fixtures: GoalIQ |
BEYOND 90 Bayern Munich, beyond the scoreline. Tactical insight. Honest analysis. Opinions you won't get from the usual coverage. An independent publication. Not affiliated with or endorsed by FC Bayern München. |
