MD1 · Home
Stuttgart
5–1
Upamecano, Olise, OG, Pavlović, Díaz
MD2 · Away
Schalke
0–0 xG 2.10
Karius kept everything out
MD3 · Away
Elversberg
2–1
Karl, Kane
MD4 · Home
Union Berlin
7–0 xG 3.77
Olise 3, Kane 2 (his 100th BL goal, in 98 games), Musiala, Saibari
01  The Big Take
Nothing from 2.10 xG at Schalke. Seven from 3.77 against Union. Put the two together and it looks like finishing evening itself out. We think that reading is too tidy.
Both teams sat deep and let Bayern have the ball. Our reading is that finishing wasn't the main difference between the two results. What mattered more was how Bayern attacked the space around the block, and which attackers were on the pitch to do it. At Schalke, Kane, Olise and Musiala only came on for the last half-hour. Against Union, the first-choice front four started together.
Bayern don't have a finishing problem against deep blocks. What we don't know yet is whether they have a plan for one, or just better players.
This is an interpretation of two games, not a proven pattern. Section 05 makes the case against it.
02  The Tactical Take
Why the same problem produced 0 and 7
Schalke · what they did
Schalke gave Bayern 83% of the ball and had only four shots of their own all game. They weren't trying to play. They were trying to be in the way. It worked: the club's own analysis says Bayern's shots were repeatedly blocked, 11 corners came to nothing, and Karius handled what got through.
Schalke · how Bayern attacked it
Bayern could get the ball close. They played 914 passes, 383 of them in the final third. They had 52 touches in the box and made six clear-cut chances. Reaching the box wasn't the problem. The problem was what each shot faced once it was taken. Our inference is that repeated blocks usually mean the ball is arriving in front of a defence rather than around it, so attackers are shooting through a wall of bodies. We don't have the Schalke shot map, so treat that as a reading rather than a finding.
Who was on the pitch matters too. Three of the first-choice front four, Kane, Olise and Musiala, started on the bench. The club says their late introduction brought a “barrage of attacks” that was “repeatedly repelled”. That cuts slightly against us: the best attackers were there for the final half-hour, and the block still held.
Union · what they did
Union had the same idea and took it further. Bavarian Football Works calls it a “maximum security” block, built to congest the centre.
Union · how Bayern attacked it
This time Bayern didn't try to go through the block. With the middle full, Díaz and Olise found space on the flanks, and the goals came from there. Davies set up Musiala, Olise crossed for Kane's header, and Olise scored three himself. Musiala played inside the crowded zone and won 15 duels there. The first-choice front four started the game together, so the width was there from the first minute rather than added late.
Why the outcomes differed
Width changes what kind of shot you get. When the ball arrives from the side, defenders have to turn and face their own goal. When it arrives from the front, the shot has to go through them. The Union numbers fit that picture: 15 of 23 shots were on target, and the xG on target (3.54) was close to the overall 3.77. So the shots reached the goal. At Schalke, they kept hitting people.
SCHEMATIC  The idea: two routes into a deep block
Sourced: Bayern's 4-2-3-1 and starting XI against Union (club match report). Union's congested centre and Bayern's use of the flanks (Bavarian Football Works). Musiala's 15 duels. Olise's cross for Kane's 54th-minute header.
Illustrated: every position and arrow. This shows the concept, not where players actually stood. Our sources don't say which flank each winger played, so Olise and Díaz aren't given a side.
Elversberg · the test case in between
With a rotated XI, and Musiala, Díaz and Kimmich on the bench, Bayern's opener came the Union way. Saibari's low cross found the far post and Karl finished. After that, Maximilian Rohr made 13 defensive contributions for Elversberg, crucial blocks among them, and the game tightened. The winner needed Kane to find a pocket of space in a crowded area on 72 minutes.
A working hypothesis from three games: when Bayern went wide first, the block gave way. When the ball went through the middle, it mostly held. Three games gives us a hypothesis, not a rule.
03  The Numbers
Same problem, different outcome
■ at Schalke (0–0)    ■ v Union (7–0)
SHOTS
15
 
23
XG
2.10
 
3.77
GOALS
0
 
7
914
Passes at Schalke, 383 of them in the final third. No goals.
Bayern could get the ball there. That wasn't the problem.
15 of 23
Shots on target against Union.
At Schalke the shots kept being blocked. Against Union they reached the goal.
5 of 7
Union goals scored or set up by a wide player: Olise (four) and Davies.
This is where the width argument shows up in the numbers.
16
Points won by Bayern's four league opponents, from 16 games between them.
The strongest number against us. See 05.
04  The One Thing You Missed
Beyond the highlights
Olise had the room. Musiala may be why.
What we saw
Against Union, Musiala won 15 duels, more than anyone else on the pitch. He did it in the congested centre Union had set up to protect. He also scored the opener and set up Olise's first. Out wide, Olise scored three from 1.11 xG.
What we think it means
A block only leaves the flanks open if something keeps it narrow. Musiala winning duel after duel in the middle is one plausible reason Union's shape stayed tight and Olise found room. It's a reading, not a finding. Our sources show the duels and they show the space. They don't show one causing the other.
At Schalke, Musiala played the last half-hour. When he next starts against a deep block, see whether the flanks open again.
05  The Counterargument
Maybe Union were just bad
—  The 7–0 flatters Bayern. Seven goals from 3.77 xG doesn't last, and Olise's three came from 1.11 xG. Union are 17th and have conceded 17 in four games. Part of the scoreline is finishing luck against a side having a bad start, whatever the tactics were.
—  Two games is not a pattern. The rotation argument rests on two away games. Kane and Olise both started at Elversberg and it was still tight. The link between who starts and what happens could be coincidence.
—  Schalke might just have been Karius. Kompany: “We didn't give them anything and created our own chances. There were lots of positives.” Neuer said Bayern “lacked a bit of luck in key moments.” If they're right, there's no structural lesson here, only a goalkeeper having a very good day.
—  Weak opponents. Stuttgart are 15th, Schalke and Elversberg were promoted, and Union are 17th. We also don't have published xG for Stuttgart or Elversberg, so the argument above rests on two data points.
06  What It Means
Augsburg away is the test
Bayern are second on 10 points, two behind a Dortmund side with a perfect 12. Their +12 goal difference is the best in the league by three. Augsburg are fourth and have scored 11 in four, so they may not sit deep at all. If they don't, that tests Bayern in a different way.
1
Who starts. This is the third away league game. If Kompany rotates again, does the XI he picks have the width to pull a block apart?
2
Where the goals come from. If Augsburg do sit, watch the first 20 minutes. Is Bayern's ball going to Olise and Díaz in space, or into the middle and into bodies?
3
Olise away from home. He has scored in all three home games and blanked in both away league games.
One to watch: Michael Olise, goals in his last five
1
 
STU (H)
0
 
S04 (A)
2
 
BOD (H, UCL)
0
 
SVE (A)
3
 
FCU (H)
Four league goals and two in the Champions League. Red bars are home games, grey bars away.
The B90 Question
Is Bayern's answer to a deep block a tactical idea, or is it just Olise, Musiala and Díaz being on the pitch?
We're carrying this into Issue 02. Augsburg may start to answer it.
Next: Augsburg v Bayern
WWK Arena · fourth v second · Sat 10 Oct · 15:30 CEST · 14:30 UK
Sources: FC Bayern: Schalke analysis · FC Bayern: Union match report · Bavarian Football Works via Yahoo · Flashscore: Elversberg · GGFN: Elversberg · GGFN: Stuttgart · VAVEL: Bodø/Glimt · Bundesliga.com · Table and fixtures: GoalIQ
BEYOND 90
Bayern Munich, beyond the scoreline.
Tactical insight. Honest analysis. Opinions you won't get from the usual coverage.
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