Table Bayern 3rd 11 points, two behind the top two | Table Leipzig 5th 9 points from five games | At home Bayern 17–1 Three home games, three wins | Away Leipzig 2–9 League and Europe: three games, three defeats |
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| 01 The Big Take |
| For a week we've written about deep blocks. Leipzig are not a deep block. That makes today a different question, and maybe a more dangerous one. |
| Bayern have not won since the international break: 2–2 at Augsburg, 3–3 in Stavanger. Both times the opponent sat back, gave Bayern the ball and waited. In Stavanger, Viking scored from a corner and a counter. |
| Leipzig are built differently. They are the Bundesliga's second-highest scorers with 15 goals, one behind Bayern. They beat Frankfurt 6–0 last weekend and PSV 1–0 on Tuesday. At home they have played four, won four and conceded none. |
| The strange part is away from home. Leipzig have played three away games in the league and Champions League, at Bremen, Como and Leverkusen, and lost all three, scoring two and conceding nine. |
| Bayern's best home form against Leipzig's worst away form. On paper. |
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| The away record is three games. That's a pattern, not proof. Their only away win came in the German Cup, 6–0 at Eintracht Trier in August. |
| 02 The Tactical Take |
| Three things that decide it |
| 1 · The space behind, again |
| In our Article this week we wrote that Bayern's high line and thin cover behind the ball are a choice, not an accident. Viking found that space once. Leipzig, who score goals in volume, will try to find it more often. |
| Under Martin Demichelis, Leipzig are expected in a 4-2-3-1, with Christopher Nkunku, their top league scorer on four goals, behind the striker. Previews expect Banzuzi and El Aynaoui as the two holding players, with Gruda and Nusa wide. When Bayern lose the ball high up, watch who is left behind it. |
| 2 · Urbig, for a third game |
| Neuer missed training this week with a foot problem. Kompany said “it won't take long”, but Sky report that Urbig will start. That makes it Augsburg, Viking and Leipzig in a row for Urbig. In Stavanger he conceded three: two headers and a ball in behind. |
| It's not a verdict on Urbig. It's a lot to ask of any keeper behind a line this high, against a team this good at running into space. |
| 3 · Set pieces |
| Two of Viking's three goals were headers from one player's deliveries. In our post-match issue we said Leipzig will have noticed. Bayern have had four days to work on it. The first Leipzig corner will tell you whether they did. |
| Previews disagree on Bayern's XI. Some have Laimer at right-back and Gnabry behind Kane; others have Stanišić and Saibari. Pavlović is back in training. Olise's red card was in the Champions League, so he is available today. |
| 03 The Numbers |
Bayern at home v Leipzig away, all competitions ■ Leipzig away (3 games) ■ Bayern at home (3 games) |
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16 v 15 League goals: Bayern and Leipzig are the top two scorers in the Bundesliga. Leipzig have also conceded just five, one more than Bayern. |
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0 Goals Leipzig have conceded at home this season. Four home games, four wins, 15–0 on aggregate. |
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15 of 26 Bayern wins in the last 26 meetings. Leipzig have won three. Their last win was 3–0 in the 2023 Super Cup. |
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2 Points Bayern trail Freiburg and Dortmund by. Both have 13. If both win this weekend and Bayern don't, the gap grows. |
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| 04 The One Thing You Missed |
Beyond the headlines The table and the numbers disagree What we saw After five games, Bayern are third. Freiburg lead on goal difference from Dortmund, both on 13 points and both unbeaten. Bayern have the best goal difference in the league, +12, and the fewest goals conceded with Freiburg and Dortmund, four each. What we think it means The numbers say Bayern are the best team in the league. The table says they've dropped four points against Schalke and Augsburg, the kind of sides title winners usually beat. Leipzig is the first top-five opponent of the season. A win puts the two draws in context. A defeat would be Bayern's first of the season, with Arsenal coming on Wednesday. |
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| 05 The Counterargument |
| Maybe the away record means nothing |
| — Three games is a small sample. Bremen, Como and Leverkusen are all decent sides. Losing there says less about Leipzig than a 6–0 against Frankfurt does. |
| — Leipzig arrive in form. They've won their last two without conceding. Bayern have drawn their last two and conceded five. |
| — Bayern's home record came against weaker teams. Stuttgart are 12th, Union 16th, and Bodø/Glimt were beaten in the Champions League. None of them could hurt Bayern the way Leipzig can. |
| 06 What to Watch |
| Four things to look for today |
1 | The first ten minutes. Viking scored inside two minutes on Tuesday. A calm start matters more than usual. |
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2 | Leipzig's first counter. When Bayern lose the ball high, count how many players are behind it. |
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3 | The first corner against Bayern. After Viking, it's the clearest test of whether anything changed this week. |
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4 | Who starts. Kompany rotated six players in Stavanger. With Arsenal on Wednesday, does he go full strength today, or split it again? |
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| Out: Musiala (thigh) for Bayern; Baumgartner, Ouédraogo and Guiu for Leipzig. Neuer is expected to miss out. |
The B90 Question With Arsenal on Wednesday, should Kompany start his strongest XI today, or rotate again? Tell us on X @Beyond90Bayern. We'll pick up the best answers in the post-match issue. |
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Next: Bayern v Arsenal
Champions League · Matchday 3 · Wed 21 Oct · 20:00 UK
Then Freiburg away, Sun 25 Oct |
| Sources: Sports Mole: team news and form · The Hard Tackle: line-ups and head-to-head · Goal: Kompany on Neuer · Absolut Fussball: expected XI and Pavlović · Results, fixtures and table: GoalIQ |
BEYOND 90 Bayern Munich, beyond the scoreline. Tactical insight. Honest analysis. Opinions you won't get from the usual coverage. An independent publication. Not affiliated with or endorsed by FC Bayern München. |
